Countdown to the Oscars: The View From Here

Sasha Stone
Mirror film critic

   Usually, by this time, Oscar movies are easy to pin down. With a few exceptions, the best movies of the year — or certainly the ones critics and public agree upon — are put on critics’ lists and celebrated, come February, by easily-predictable Oscar nominations. But not this year.
   In one of the more exciting Oscar races in recent memory, most of the categories are wide open and even those you’d think you could easily predict are ripe for an upset. Take the Foreign Film category. Most would (and should) bet the bank on the Miramax-charged French treat “Amelie” to take the prize. But it’s up against MGM’s “No Man’s Land,” which has particular resonance in this post-9/11 era. “Amelie” is a hopeful film for a feel-good time, while “No Man’s Land” examines the irony of a pointless war. Still, expect “Amelie” to pull out the win, especially since it is being marketed by Miramax’s Harvey Weinstein, who can turn water into wine when it comes to Oscars.
   Foreign Language Film seems to be the only true lock, with the exception of the dazzling cinematography work of Roger Deakins in “The Man Who Wasn’t There.” He is far ahead of the pack, winning nearly every critics’ award, as well as the new AFI award. The other likely bet is an Original Screenplay win for Christopher Nolan’s “Memento.” There was some confusion as to whether or not the screenplay should be considered an adaptation, but the film was actually written before the short story and is expected to find its place in the Original category.
   But as we move to the major awards, the forecast becomes more hazy. The acting categories have leads switching to supporting (Ian McKellen for “Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring,” and Gene Hackman in “The Royal Tenenbaums”) and supporting switching to lead (Naomi Watts for “Mulholland Drive”). But, even so, there are a few names that keep popping up.
   Though up against powerhouses Halle Berry (“Monster’s Ball”), Watts, and Stockard Channing (“The Business of Strangers”), Sissy Spacek won the American Film Institute’s award for Lead Actress for her work in the highly acclaimed “In the Bedroom.” Spacek has also been honored by the New York Film Critics, Los Angeles Film Critics, Florida Film Critics and Southeastern Film Critics, and has been nominated for a Golden Globe. It’s safe to say, at this point, that she is the clear frontrunner. Fast on her heels, though, is newcomer Watts, whose memorable turn in David Lynch’s “Mulholland Drive,” despite a tepid campaign thus far, has gained her a win (in the supporting category) with the National Society of Film Critics, among others.
   Spacek and Watts have some serious competition from Berry, who is the potential surprise winner in this category, and whose win would make Oscar history (no black woman has ever won for lead). Berry’s work in “Monster’s Ball” should, at the very least, get her a nomination, along with co-star, Billy Bob Thornton. Either Watts and Berry could be the “Hilary Swank” of Oscars 2002, taking down the veteran Sissy Spacek. Most are putting all of their chips on Spacek, however.
   The wild card in this category is Nicole Kidman, who was named Entertainer of the Year by Entertainment Weekly and E! and has been nominated for two Golden Globes, one for “Moulin Rouge” and another for “The Others.” Kidman is expected to pick up an Oscar nod, but for which film? At this point, it is anyone’s guess.
   Should Naomi Watts land in the Supporting category, she’d have to beat out frontrunner Jennifer Connelly, who just won the AFI award for her supporting work in Ron Howard’s “A Beautiful Mind.” Both Maggie Smith and Helen Mirren have been winning critics’ honors for their work in Robert Altman’s ensemble piece “Gosford Park,” and Marisa Tomei is expected to make it to the Academy Awards once again for her turn in “In the Bedroom.”
   The male actors aren’t as easily predictable. In fact, this is a wide-open category. Russell Crowe is expected to pick up his third Oscar nomination in as many years for his work as the brilliant but mentally ill mathematician John Nash. His main competition is Denzel Washington, who should ace a nomination for his turn as the nasty cop in “Training Day.” Washington was overlooked for his career-best performance in “Hurricane,” which could help him pick up a win here. He took home the AFI Award for Best Actor.
   Coming on fast is the versatile Billy Bob Thornton, who was hailed by critics for both “The Man Who Wasn’t There,” and “Monster’s Ball,” not to mention his supporting role in “Bandits.” Thornton has had the most impressive year of any actor and it seems unlikely he won’t be rewarded in one or both categories. Thornton is nominated for lead and supporting actor Golden Globes, and could win both, but he’d have to defeat favorites Washington and Hackman.
   Finally, the Best Picture race is the wildest of all. Two frontrunners have emerged — Peter Jackson’s “The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring” and Ron Howard’s “A Beautiful Mind.” Most of the other movies that were expected to be Oscar material have not done well with critics – including “Vanilla Sky,” “Ali,” “The Shipping News,” and “The Majestic.” But Oscar winners are not made on critical reviews alone. Box office is almost always a factor with Best Picture candidates, as it is a producer’s award, after all. But this year, most of the critics’ awards have gone to films that didn’t make a lot of money, like “Mulholland Drive,” “Gosford Park,” “In the Bedroom,” and “Moulin Rouge.”
   “A Beautiful Mind” was recently hit with a nasty rumor that the filmmakers suppressed the fact that Nash was a bisexual, or perhaps even gay. Director Howard says that this element was deleted to clear the way for the powerful love story. Still, this news could dampen the momentum the film was gaining, leaving the winner’s circle wide open for “Lord of the Rings.”
   Though it seems unlikely, these frontrunners and predictions could change after the announcement of the Directors Guild (Jan. 22), Screen Actors Guild (Jan. 29), and Writers Guild (Feb. 7) awards.
   There could be a cliffhanger this year with the introduction of both Steven Spielberg’s “A.I.” and Chris Columbus’ “Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone,” which was the highest grossing film of the year. “A.I.” was hurt by bad word of mouth, yet many critics have chosen it as their favorite film of the year. The Academy could surprise everyone and name this among the best films of 2001. It would certainly be a shock, but it is not entirely out of the realm of possibility — yet another factor making this one wild year for the Oscars.
   For more information on the Oscars, and to play along with us as we predict the Golden Globes, please direct your browser to Sasha Stone’s website on the Oscar race, www.oscarwatch.com.